Brown riding higher

The Boston Globe is reporting that Scott Brown is the most popular elected figure in Massachusetts. That doesn't translate to support for his follow GOP members running in November, though. Look for Brown to spend a lot of time working and speaking in the Bay State in the next few months.

What kind of reception can Palin expect?

Sarah Palin is scheduled to speak at a Tea Party rally on Boston Common tomorrow. The Massachusetts GOP appears to be distancing itself from the event and Mrs. Palin -- neither Republican gubernatorial candidate will appear at the event and Scott Brown has declined to make the trip from Washington.

Massachusetts is not a natural home for the Tea Party. Republicans in Massachusetts inevitably and necessarily go to pains to distance themselves from the "far right" with which the Tea Party has come to be associated. Many see the Tea Party as anti-government and quasi-Libertarian despite efforts by the Tea Party to embrace both Democrats and Republicans. As a result, Bay State Republicans understandably fear being associated too closely with the Tea Party.

But the Tea Party certainly has embraced Massachusetts Republicans -- at least Scott Brown. As discussed by Fox News, Scott Brown has been heavily criticized on talk radio for not appearing at the rally, but Tea Party leaders have expressed satisfaction that he is doing his job representing them in the Senate rather than attending rallies.

The Tea Party presents something of a challenge for the GOP in Massachusetts because it has the energy and capacity to bring out voters. Brown won his seat by attracting independent voters angry about what they perceive as excess spending by the Democratic Congress. If other Republicans are hoping to win in an all-state election, they will need to win those same independent voters. And the Tea Party at least claims to carry the mantle of those same anti-spending independents.

For GOP candidates who aren't indisposed by duties in DC, there is a stark decision -- appear with the Tea Party, hope to attract independents focused on fiscal sobriety, and fear alienating the blue base, or decline the invitation and risk ceding the high road on the budget.

Governor's race update: polling is steady but Baker is raking it in

A new Rasmussen poll reports President Obama stump speech for Deval Patrick had little impact on the Governor’s approval numbers.

If Charlie Baker wins the Republican nomination and independent Tim Cahill stays in the race, the poll finds:

Patrick 35%
Baker 27%
Cahill 23%
Undecided 15%

Baker is down from the previous poll despite receiving Scott Brown’s endorsement.

If Christy Mihos wins the nomination, Patrick takes 38%, Cahill 33% and Mihos only 15%.

The Boston Globe is reporting that Charlie Baker is raising money "at a furious pace." According to the Globe, Baker has passed $2 million, raised almost three times as much as Patrick in the last two weeks of March and his bank balance is now more than double Patrick's. Patrick trails Tim Cahill as well. Candidate fundraising information is available here.

Sean Bielat making some noise

Sean Bielat, Republican candidate for the Massachusetts 4th District, is taking the offensive against Barney Frank, linking him to the unpopular Obama Health Care plan and potentially extensive damage to Massachusetts health care companies. On March 29, Bielat released a statement titled "Sean Bielat condemns Barney Frank's Assault on Massachusetts' Healthcare Companies."

Bielat hit at Frank for supporting a bill that will impose higher taxes on pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers in the Bay State. According to Bielat, "Massachusetts leads the nation in biotechnology innovation" and while "[p]olls may tell Barney Frank and congressional Democrats that our state's pharmaceutical and medical device companies are an easy political target for tax increases," those taxes will lead to layoffs in the Bay State. According to Bielat, the new taxes will produce a cascading affect: layoffs by the taxed companies, foreclosures on laid-off employees' homes, small business failures from lost consumer liquidity, state revenue losses from the shrunken tax base and decreased sales, and, finally, government service rationing.

Bielat may be Republicans’ best hope of unseating Frank since his election -- a young, energetic outsider who can campaign in the Scott Brown mold and capitalize on popular disgust with Congress.

Healthcare update - Lynch expressing concerns, too

The Boston Herald is reporting that Stephen Lynch (MA-9) will probably vote no on Obamacare and opposes the sleight of hand "deem-and-pass" maneuver Nancy Pelosi is considering. While Massachusetts’s all-Democrat delegation to the House is ranked the most liberal delegation in the house, a number of Massachusetts Congressman are in play on Obamacare. The Herald reports that in addition to Lynch, Michael Capuano (MA-8) and John Tierney (MA-6) are undecided. Ed Markey (MA-7) is likely to vote for the bill.

My guess is once the time to vote rolls around, the Bay State delegation will toe the party line as usual, vote for the bill, and then claim credit as among the deciding voters.

Race profile: 8th Suffolk District -- Walz v. Marston

The 8th Suffolk District encompasses parts of Boston and Cambridge. Incumbent Democrat Marty Walz has the following map on her website: 

Walz - Walz has solid, traditional credentials.  She earned her BA magna cum laude from Colgate, has a Masters from the Kennedy School and her JD from NYU.  Walz has practiced law for a couple of notable firms, including well regarded employment law specialists Littler Mendelson. Her website says Walz "had a particular focus on preventing illegal discrimination and harassment in the workplace."  Walz also practiced in-house for publisher Harcourt General, Inc.

Walz is seeking election to her fourth term on Beacon Hill. Walz's website touts her success obtaining funds for local projects and blocking a proposal to reroute Storrow Drive onto the Esplanade.  Walz says she supports "gradually increase[ing] the personal exemption and decreas[ing] the income tax rate as the state collects more revenue."  She offers no suggestion of how the state will "collect[] more revenue," but rather assumes that is will do so.

Walz's website also says she:

• Supports a longer school day and school year.
• Supports incentives for construction of "affordable housing" units.
• Supports a state constitutional amendment "giving every resident a constitutionally protected right to adequate health care."
• Supports gay marriage, ascribing current debate to a "1913 law, born of racial discrimination."
• Supports "reproductive freedom;" Walz is on the Board of NARAL Pro-Choice Massachusetts.  Walz also promotes her support for stem cell research, including legislation promoting Massachusetts as a center for stem cell research
• Is the lead sponsor of 1) An Act Relative to the Reinstatement of the Clean Environment Fund to increase the number of bottles on which a deposit is required at purchase, with proceeds to "support[] recycling, climate protection, parks, urban forestry, water quality and conservation, and air quality;" and 2) "An Act Relative to Electronic Waste and Recycling" imposing a fee on sales of electronic products to promote recycling of those produces.
• Supported raising the minimum wage to $8.00.

Brad Marston - Republican challenger Brad Marston is a Georgetown grad with a finance background.  Marston began his career at First Boston and rose to Senior VP of New York-based Gruntal and Company.  While Marston gave up finance in 1994 and has since become an actor, his website emphasizes his “over 25 years of business and management experience.”

Marston’s website sets out an agenda to parallel Scott Brown, a growing, if obvious, trend among GOP candidates in the Bay State.  The first statement on his home page hits at popular discontent over taxes and jobs and he promises to provide government “liv[ing] within its means,” small business growth and entrepreneurship.  His later reference to “taking care of people truly in need” harkens back to GWB’s Compassionate Conservatism circa 2000.

Marston is running like many potential 2012 candidates on being the outsider.  He vows to end “closed door meetings and back room deals” and promises the openness and transparency that Obama touted during the campaign but has abjured as President.  In the Bay State context, Marston takes the theme a step further, referring repeatedly to the need for “balance” on Beacon Hill and asking for support from “Republicans, Democrats and Undeclared voters alike.”  Marston implicitly links one-party governance with corruption on Beacon Hill, noting that three consecutive House Speakers (all Democrats) have been subjected to Federal indictments. 

Marston’s site lists several specific proposals:

• Job creation through tax simplification and reduction, and support for small business growth; consolidation or elimination of redundant and wasteful state economic agencies.
• Cut sales tax even more than the 2009 increase, rolling back to 3%.
• Significant spending cuts; Marston says
• The Earmark Transparency Act requiring creation of a searchable web listing of all earmarks (Marston slams earmarks as “the antithesis of open, transparent government”).
• $2 billion in budget savings, including four specific proposals: 1) Repealing the “Pacheco Law” that increases government expenses in favor of public unions; 2) expanding the Group Insurance Commission already covering some state and municipal employees, retirees, etc.; 3) expanding the state’s managed care program to include Medicaid patients; and 4) reforming the public employee pension system.
• Eliminating 6400 of the 7500 new public sector jobs created since 2004. 
• Limiting spending increases to parallel inflation and population growth.
• Directing all capital-gains revenue to restoring the Stabilization fund.

Upshot - Marston has been waging an aggressive campaign since putting his hat in the ring.  His Facebook profile has 3,900 friends and provides a constant flow of information on Marston's canvassing, speaking and fund-raising.  Marston has been quite visible at GOP events in and around Boston, seeking to create face and name recognition in the party core.  However, his website’s “groups” page counts only 19 members among 7 groups and the members page shows only 98 members.

And any race in Suffolk is going to be a tough contest for a Republican, particularly a relative unknown.  Every Rep from Suffolk is a Democrat.  That said, at this point Marston seems to be leading the race on ideas.  Walz hasn't made any statements that address the core issues that are driving voters -- jobs, the economy, the deficit.  Marston's proposals may not be enough to get elected in a strong left district, but they are at least ideas.

It’s early for a state race, but Marston needs to make a name for himself and needs the funds to do it, and as of the end of 2009, Walz was leading the fundraising race with $83K to Marston's $4K.  A lot has happened since then, and a lot will happen before the election, but Marston needs to make up some ground, fast.

Brown stays the course

Scott Brown has delivered the Republican response to President Obama’s weekly Radio address and he has done so quite well.

Obama’s speech tacked to safe center ground, promoting his education reform bill.  Citing reports that the state of education in the US is in relative decline compared to other nations, Obama contended that whereas American emphasis on education in the last century “lifted living standards and set us apart as the world’s engine of innovation.”  today “American 15 year olds no longer even near the top in math and science” and the US has fallen behind in both high school graduation rates and “the proportion of college graduates we produce[].”  It is not clear what “proportion” he was referring to.

Obama propped Arne Duncan as an “outstanding Education secretary” and touted the Race to the Top program that recently made Massachusetts a finalist for additional education funding and brought Governor Patrick some needed positive attention.  Obama announced he will propose an overhaul of No Child Left Behind and that the forthcoming reform bill will “provide educators the flexibility to reach” new, high standards.  Obama vaguely promised to reward progress, encourage reforms in failing schools, and promote constant improvement.  Obama also asserted contrary to evidence that parental involvement is the strongest factor in a child’s academic success, that teachers are “the most important factor in a child’s success,” a sop to populous and powerful teachers’ unions.

Obama then sought to bring his education reform proposal back to promoting those issues he holds more dearly -- “improving the economy, reforming the healthcare system, encouraging innovation in energy and other growth industries of the 21st century.”  Obama’s effort to link the inherent good of better education to the dubious good of his own popularly reviled health care reform proposal comes off flat and deceptive.

Brown’s statements were far more persuasive and far less forced.  Brown emphasized the same themes he pressed during his campaign, saying his election “told politicians in Washington to get its priorities right.”  Brown pressed over and over the disparity between the administration’s push for healthcare reform and the population’s despair for jobs, saying the people want “their president and Congress to focus on creating jobs.” Brown dismissed the Democrats’ headlong drive to pass a healthcare bill -- any healthcare bill -- as “bitter, destructive and endless;” Obama and the Democratic leadership “made takeover of healthcare their first priority;” Obama has failed to improve unemployment that was at 7.2% last January and now is almost 10%; Obama promised in the State of the Union to focus on jobs and the economy, yet promptly returned to the “same 2,700-page, multi-trillion dollar healthcare legislation.”  Brown dismissed health care reform as a distraction and a “disastrous detour.”

Brown also tapped into public frustration at Washington elitism.  Brown commented that Washington is behaving “at its very worst” by ignoring polls showing strong popular opposition to health care reform and Democrats’ demand that they are “going to get their way whether the American people like it or not,”  adding that the administration is “defying the public will” on healthcare.

Brown directly attacked Obama’s failure to live up to his own promises.  While Obama “pledged transparency,” Obamacare is “tainted by secrecy, concealed cost, and . . . backroom deals.”  Despite a promise of bipartisanship, the administration has “resorted to bending the rules” and will “seize control of healthcare in America on a strict party-line vote.” 

Brown hit directly at Nancy Pelosi and “others” as “handing down their marching orders, telling [Democratic congressmen] to vote for this bill no matter what.”  Brown continued that in the contest between the leadership’s dictate and the population’s demand, “I’d suggest going with the will of the people.” 

Brown’s final statements were the strongest by either man:

“[F]rom the very beginning of this debate, the American people have called it correctly. In every part of the country, Republicans and Democrats have agreed on serious, straightforward, commonsense healthcare reform. They expect us in Washington to do the same – working together, acting fairly and by the rules, and staying focused on the need to make the American economy as strong as it can be.  That is the business that brought me here on an unexpected journey to Washington. And, it’s the responsibility of everyone sent here to serve our country.”