Saturday, February 27, 2010

Massachusetts has the Most Liberal House Delegation

According to rankings published by the National Journal, Massachusetts has the most liberal House delegation. According to this , John Kerry is the 6th most liberal Senator, John Olver (MA-1) is the most liberal House member and Massachusetts's House delegation is the most liberal all together.

The full rankings are Olver (1), Frank (12), Delahunt (30), Capuano (35), Markey (40), McGovern (47), Tsongas (51), Neal (104), Tierney (106), Lynch (149). That puts the entire Massachusetts delegation in the most liberal 40% of voting records in the country and half the Mass delegation in the most liberal 10%.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Welcome snapshot

This first post will discuss what is happening now in the Commonwealth and what is on the horizon.

This year the Commonwealth will elect a governor, House of Representatives delegation (10 seats), and state legislature. The issues that will define these races are typical of those around the country: unemployment, budget deficits, taxes and corruption. It is worth watching to what extent Republicans or Independents are able to translate dissatisfaction with the status quo on Beacon Hill into real gains against the long-dominant Democrats.

One additional issue closely related to employment and economic opportunities, is that Massachusetts will almost certainly lose a seat in the House before the 2012 election cycle. The 2010 census is expected to show the population shifting South and West, and Massachusetts is among the states expected to lose Federal clout as a result. Addressing Massachusetts' relative population loss will be a challenge both this year and well into the next decade. And while redistricting and gerrymandering discussions have likely begun on Beacon Hill, which incumbent is forced either out of the House or to challenge another incumbent will be a hot topic in 2011. If one of the Republican challengers is able to take the governor's seat, expect a drawn-out and acrimonious debate.

Governor's race:

Incumbent governor Deval Patrick will face two strong competitors in his re-election bid. Independent Tim Cahill is state treasurer and previously held various local and country positions. Two Republican candidates are competing for their party's nomination: Christy Mihos and Charlie Baker.

Patrick: Patrick was elected in 2006 with dominant performances in both the Democratic primary (almost 50% in a three way contest) and the general election (beating Republican Kerry Healey by over 20 points and then-independent Christy Mihos by almost 50 points). Since then, however, Patrick's approval numbers have fallen have fallen precipitously. In difficult economic times, Patrick's budgets have been characterized by tax increases and service cuts, but also by heavy reliance on federal assistance. While proposed and passed under the Romney administration, the state's universal health-care system is both drowning in red ink and being pointed to as the model for Obamacare. As a result, there is pressure on Patrick as Obama's close friend and ally to make sure the system stays solvent, viable and popular. Should Patrick lose re-election, expect to see him in Washington with close friend and ally Obama.

Mihos: Mihos has deep family roots in Massachusetts and will campaign on his American Dream story and entrepreneurship. Mihos is wealthy from selling his family's New England-wide chain of convenience stores and now operating a number of such stores on Cape Cod. Mihos was a Vice Chairman and Director of the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority and his campaign will tout that he fought for the taxpayer against fraud and waste at the MTA. His campaign website indicates his intention to remove all Mass Pike tolls. He is an economics candidate who may try to follow the Scott Brown story line of a down-to-earth local kid made good, particularly against Patrick's and Baker's higher-brow CVs. Mihos would likely struggle against Patrick's high profile.

Baker: Expect Baker to win the Republican nomination and put him as a modest favorite to win the Governor's seat. Like Mihos, Baker is a Massachusetts native. However, he has a longer and stronger record in state-wide government, among other credentials. Baker had a role in Medicaid reform and other medical services reforms as Undersecretary for Health in the Executive Office of Health and Human Services in the Weld Administration, and led that administration's welfare reform efforts as Secretary of Health Human Services beginning in 1992. With welfare expenses growing in difficult times, expect Baker to hearken back to that experience and perhaps to call for reforms along the lines of Tommy Thompson's prototype in Wisconsin.

Baker was subsequently Secretary of Administration and Finance from the fall of 1994 through September, 1998, overseeing reforms to state acquisition methods and regulations. In 1998 the National Governor’s Association gave him the Distinguished Service Award.

Baker has since held leadership positions in the private sector as CEO of Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates (1998-99) and CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care (1999-2009). Baker's strong successes at Harvard Pilgrim (including top rankings for member satisfaction from US News & World Report and “Best Places To Work” from the Boston Business Journal) and experience in state health administration under Weld should be particularly persuasive to the electorate in light of the Commonwealth's health care deficits and the national debate over health care reform.

Baker has a degree in English from Harvard and an MBA from the world-class Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Chicago, moderating some of the awe factor that comes with Patrick's educational background. Baker has also held various local government positions which compare favorably with Mihos. Overall, Baker is by far the strongest competitor in a head-to-head against Patrick.

Cahill: Cahill, like Patrick's other challengers, will run on his economic experience. He is the current Massachusetts State Treasurer and has previously held fiduciary positions in Norfolk County. Cahill will try to tap into the support Scott Brown found in his Senatorial campaign and run on fiscal responsibility, budgeting and low taxes. However, Cahill will be tainted by his role in the current administration and will struggle to distinguish himself.

House races:

Every US Rep from Massachusetts has been a Democrat since the close of the 104th Congress in 1997. In a year that has already seen Scott Brown becoming the Commonwealth's first Republican Senator since 1979, Republicans hope to break the Democrats' hold on the House delegation as well. President Obama's performance and the conduct of the gubernatorial race likely will influence these races heavily; if Independents' dissatisfaction with Obama carries into November, Republican candidates will try to ride the same wave on which Brown capitalized. See the bottom of this page for a map of Massachusetts House Districts. Snapshots of each race below:

MA 1 - Incumbent John Olver has represented a broad swatch of North-Central and Western Massachusetts since 1991. Olver is an accomplished chemist who has rarely faced competition for his seat, with only Jane Swift's 1996 run making any headway. Olver has a coveted seen on the House Appropriations committee. Olver is Chairman of the Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development. The THUD subcommittee has broad budgetary jurisdiction over the Department of HUS, and federal transportation agencies. Olver is also on the Interior, Environment and Related Agencies Appropriations Subcommittee and Energy and Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee. Olver is Senior Whip for Democratic Caucus.

Olver may face a primary opponent, and two Republican have already indicated their intention to run -- Jeffrey Donnelly and Timothy McLaughlin.

MA 2 - Richard Neal has represented Springfield and parts of South Suburban Worcester since 1989. He is a former mayor of Springfield. He has never faced a serious challenged and has not been opposed at all since 1998. Neal is a solid, across the board Democrat with a seat on the House Ways and Means Committee.

Neal will be opposed in 2010 by the winner of the Republican primary race between Thomas McCarthy, Vietnam vet Tom Wesley and Jay Fleitman, a doctor.

MA 3 - Jim McGovern has represented Worcester, Boston's far west suburbs and much of the Eastern Rhode Island border area since 1997. McGovern is a prototype Washington insider, having earned his undergraduate and graduate degrees at American University in Washington and spent his entire professional career serving the House in some capacity. He is Vice-Chairman of the Committee on Rules and is on the Committee on Budget. Of note, he supported President Obama's $787 billion bail-out bill and introduced a failed bill to force the US withdrawal from Iraq in May, 2007.

Republicans Robert Delle, Martin Lamb, Michael P. Stopa and Robert Chipman have indicated possible intentions to challenge McGovern. Independent Patrick J. Barron may challenge as well.

MA 4 - Barney Frank represents probably the most gerrymandered district in the state. MA 4 includes Boston suburbs Brookline and Newton, but also Taunton, New Bedford and the Southern Coast. Although Ed Markey in MA 7 has been serving longer, Frank is the face of the Massachusetts House delegation and has been in the House since 1980 with few challengers. Frank was the ranking member of the Financial Services Committee in 2003 when he said of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that “these two entities...are not facing any kind of financial crisis.... The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.” Frank’s opposition to additional oversight over Fannie and Freddie will likely be a topic of discussion in any contest. Frank is now Chair of the Financial Services Committee.

Republicans Sean Bielat, a veteran, and Keith Messina will join Frank’s frequent antagonist Earl Sholley (a loser by 43 points in 2008) in the Republican primary. Bielat appears the most serious contender, supported by his past military service, strong educational background and natural fit to the Scott Brown mold contrasting Messina’s excessive youth (he’s 25) and Sholley’s worn name marred by repeated ignominious defeats. Frank will nominally be challenged by Rachel Brown in a Democratic Primary.

Frank’s hold on his home territory in Newton and Brookline is likely impregnable by any opponent, but the Southern Shore and areas more distant from Boston may be available to a strong challenger. Scott Brown narrowly won MA 4 in his Senate contest against Martha Coakley.

MA 5 - Niki Tsongas represents small parts of Worcester and Essex Counties, and much of Middlesex County north of I-90. She is the junior-most member of Massachusetts' House delegation and widow of Paul Tsongas. In 2007 she received a plurality (36%) in the Democratic primary and went on to defeat Jim Ogonowski 51-47 in the special election to replace long-time representative Marty Meehan after his resignation. She was unopposed for reelection in 2008. Tsongas serve on the Committee on Armed Services (Military Personnel and Strategic Forces Subcommittees), Committee on Budget and Committee on Natural Resources.

Tsongas is will be challenged by the winner of the Republican primary between Jon Golnick and Sam Meas.

MA 6 - John Tierney has represented the North Shore, comprising most of Essex County and part of Middlesex County, since 1997. He is an attorney and a true-blue democrat with 90+ ratings from all of the standard democratic issue organizations. He has seats on the Committee on Education and Labor (Higher Education, Lifelong Learning, and Competitiveness and Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions subcommittees), Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (Domestic Policy and National Security subcommittee and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs subcommittee) and powerful Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (Vice Chair of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations).

Republican Bill Hudak, also a lawyer, has declared his intention to run against Tierney. Hudak has drawn criticism for comments seeming to back the conspiracy theory that President Obama was born in Kenya. Hudak has denied any such backing, saying instead that he had been given documents purporting to support such an allegation. Hudak also apparently claimed to have been endorsed by Scott Brown even though no such endorsement was ever given. Hudak has a long way to go.

MA 7 - Ed Markey has represented Boston’s North and far Western suburbs since 1976, making him Massachusetts’ longest-serving representative. Markey is pure Massachusetts - born and raised in Malden and attending Boston College undergraduate and law schools. He has averaged over 70% of the vote in his 16 reelections. Markey is a member of the Congressional Progressive caucus, rated “composite liberal” by the National Journal and contributes to the Huffington Post.

There are no declared challengers for MA 7, although there is speculation Markey will resign to challenge Scott Brown in the 2012 election.

MA 8 - Michael Capuano was first elected to represent Cambridge, Somerville and most of Boston in 1998, defeating former Boston Mayor Ray Flynn in the primary. He lost to Martha Coakley in the primary of the 2010 Senate special election. MA 8 is one of the safest democratic districts in the country, and there are accordingly no challengers.

MA 9 - Stephen Lynch represents part of Boston and South into Plymouth and Bristol counties and was first elected in the 2001 special election to replace Joseph Moakley. Lynch is a product of South Boston, former iron worker and union boss and graduate of Boston College Law and Harvard’s JFK School. Lynch has been challenged for reelection only in 2006. Lynch is atypical in his consistent pro-life voting record.

Republican Keith Lepor will challenge. Lepor styles himself an “author, foreign and business development analyst, consultant, speaker and recently combat photojournalist.” He has a masters from the American University in Cairo and an international relations degree from Oxford University. Lepor spent a year as a journalist in Afghanistan with the International Security Assistance Force and embedded with various combat forces. Lepor says he is running in part due to his experience in Afghanistan that US troops were underequipped. Lepor’s platform includes lower taxes, states’ rights and energy independence.

MA 10 - William Delahunt announced this month that he is considering retiring from his representation of the South Shore and Cape Cod. Delahunt has been in office since a contentious primary election and legal battle in 1996. Delahunt is on the Foreign Affairs Committee (chairman of the International Organizations subcommittee) and Judiciary Committees. Delahunt is responsible for striking a controversial deal in which Venezuela supplies cut-rate heating oil to low-income Massachusetts residents. Delahunt is an ardent opponent of the Iraq war and created controversy when telling Dick Cheney’s chief of staff David Addington that he was “glad [al-Qaeda] finally have the chance to see you” during a televised hearing

Republicans Jeff Perry (State Representative), Ray Kasperowicz and Don Hussey have announced their intention to challenge Delahunt, as has Independent Peter White. In opening his campaign headquarters, Perry identified health care, jobs, illegal immigration, national security, taxes and the deficit, and Capital Hill cronyism as his core issues.