Tuesday, April 13, 2010

What kind of reception can Palin expect?

Sarah Palin is scheduled to speak at a Tea Party rally on Boston Common tomorrow. The Massachusetts GOP appears to be distancing itself from the event and Mrs. Palin -- neither Republican gubernatorial candidate will appear at the event and Scott Brown has declined to make the trip from Washington.

Massachusetts is not a natural home for the Tea Party. Republicans in Massachusetts inevitably and necessarily go to pains to distance themselves from the "far right" with which the Tea Party has come to be associated. Many see the Tea Party as anti-government and quasi-Libertarian despite efforts by the Tea Party to embrace both Democrats and Republicans. As a result, Bay State Republicans understandably fear being associated too closely with the Tea Party.

But the Tea Party certainly has embraced Massachusetts Republicans -- at least Scott Brown. As discussed by Fox News, Scott Brown has been heavily criticized on talk radio for not appearing at the rally, but Tea Party leaders have expressed satisfaction that he is doing his job representing them in the Senate rather than attending rallies.

The Tea Party presents something of a challenge for the GOP in Massachusetts because it has the energy and capacity to bring out voters. Brown won his seat by attracting independent voters angry about what they perceive as excess spending by the Democratic Congress. If other Republicans are hoping to win in an all-state election, they will need to win those same independent voters. And the Tea Party at least claims to carry the mantle of those same anti-spending independents.

For GOP candidates who aren't indisposed by duties in DC, there is a stark decision -- appear with the Tea Party, hope to attract independents focused on fiscal sobriety, and fear alienating the blue base, or decline the invitation and risk ceding the high road on the budget.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Governor's race update: polling is steady but Baker is raking it in

A new Rasmussen poll reports President Obama stump speech for Deval Patrick had little impact on the Governor’s approval numbers.

If Charlie Baker wins the Republican nomination and independent Tim Cahill stays in the race, the poll finds:

Patrick 35%
Baker 27%
Cahill 23%
Undecided 15%

Baker is down from the previous poll despite receiving Scott Brown’s endorsement.

If Christy Mihos wins the nomination, Patrick takes 38%, Cahill 33% and Mihos only 15%.

The Boston Globe is reporting that Charlie Baker is raising money "at a furious pace." According to the Globe, Baker has passed $2 million, raised almost three times as much as Patrick in the last two weeks of March and his bank balance is now more than double Patrick's. Patrick trails Tim Cahill as well. Candidate fundraising information is available here.

Sean Bielat making some noise

Sean Bielat, Republican candidate for the Massachusetts 4th District, is taking the offensive against Barney Frank, linking him to the unpopular Obama Health Care plan and potentially extensive damage to Massachusetts health care companies. On March 29, Bielat released a statement titled "Sean Bielat condemns Barney Frank's Assault on Massachusetts' Healthcare Companies."

Bielat hit at Frank for supporting a bill that will impose higher taxes on pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers in the Bay State. According to Bielat, "Massachusetts leads the nation in biotechnology innovation" and while "[p]olls may tell Barney Frank and congressional Democrats that our state's pharmaceutical and medical device companies are an easy political target for tax increases," those taxes will lead to layoffs in the Bay State. According to Bielat, the new taxes will produce a cascading affect: layoffs by the taxed companies, foreclosures on laid-off employees' homes, small business failures from lost consumer liquidity, state revenue losses from the shrunken tax base and decreased sales, and, finally, government service rationing.

Bielat may be Republicans’ best hope of unseating Frank since his election -- a young, energetic outsider who can campaign in the Scott Brown mold and capitalize on popular disgust with Congress.